Last week, a federal jury in Virginia returned guilty verdicts against Bob McDonnell and his wife, Maureen. The two were indicted in January of 2014, just days after Bob McDonnell’s term as Virginia’s Governor ended. The 43 page indictment lists 14 counts mostly related to soliciting and receiving bribes. News outlets have reported that Bob McDonnell faces something like 84 years in prison. While that is hypothetically possible, it’s pretty unlikely. Here’s how the sentencing analysis is likely to break down:
The most serious counts have a maximum sentence of 20 years, but McDonnell will probably not get the max. The actual sentence will likely fall within a range set by the federal sentencing guidelines. Those guidelines set a basic offense level and then consider the unique facts of the case to either add or subtract from that offense level. The higher the offense level, the longer the sentence. Sentences are expressed in months, so the numbers get kinda crazy sounding.
McDonnell’s likely sentencing range
The guideline section that applies here is 2C1.1 and it sets a base offense level of 14 which corresponds to 14-21 months in prison. But here’s where the fun begins:
- Increase by 2 levels since the offense involved 2 or more bribes,
- Increase by 4 levels since since McDonnell was a high-level elected official
- Increase by 10 levels since the offense involved $164,000 with of value
- Increase by 2 levels for McDonnell’s abuse of a position of trust.
That puts the final offense level at 32 with a corresponding range of 121-151 months. The sentencing commission publishes a handy table detailing the sentencing range for each offense level and I have marked the enhancements on it. Note that sentences for the same offense are longer if a person has prior convictions that increase their criminal history category. I am assuming that McDonnell has no prior convictions.
A sentencing hearing is scheduled for January 6, 2015 at 10am. Though the judge must calculate the applicable sentencing range, they have discretion to sentence above or below that range if they chose. While I’ve applied some factors that I think apply, the judge could could find that other factors increase or reduce the sentencing range. We can be sure that the defense will argue for a sentence below the guidelines and the prosecution might well ask for something above the normal range. In the end, Bob McDonnell is likely to get at least 10 years in federal prison.